Every founder I’ve talked to this fall says the same thing — the market feels tense, but not dead.
Deals are slower. Valuations are tighter. But the conversations happening behind closed doors are the most serious I’ve heard in years.
We’re entering a new phase of M&A built on conviction instead of momentum. After two years of chaos, capital is finally getting disciplined again.
At RAD Intel, that’s exactly where we’ve been focused — using AI and data-driven intelligence to identify the right businesses, at the right stage, with real growth potential. Our Artificial Intelligence Buyout (AIBO) strategy isn’t about stacking logos; it’s about creating compounding value through smarter execution.
1 – The Market’s Quiet Shift
If you skim the headlines, you’d think dealmaking was frozen. The truth is the opposite — total deal value is up even as volume drops. Fewer, smarter deals. PwC’s latest data shows volume down nearly 20% since 2023, but total value climbing. Why? Buyers are making conviction moves. They’re done chasing optionality.
That’s the undercurrent we’ve been betting on — performance over potential. Every opportunity we evaluate has to strengthen the core: technology, talent, or distribution. If it doesn’t do that, it’s noise.
2 – Private Capital Meets Operating Rigor
The biggest players this quarter aren’t conglomerates; they’re hybrid operators. Private equity, strategics, and founder-led groups are all acting with the same intent — buy what compounds.
EY reported that nearly 60% of all North American deals this year involved PE or growth equity. Most are tied to data infrastructure, marketing AI, or automation layers. That’s validation for our approach: building systems that remove friction between creative, data, and business outcomes. We don’t buy for control; we buy for acceleration. When something plugs into our platform, performance doesn’t just add — it multiplies.
3 – Headwinds Don’t Hurt Operators
Rates are high. Regulations are heavy. Timelines stretch. But good operators still win. This market rewards execution, not speculation. Deals that close right now are the ones with synergy plans that make sense on day one.
Our filter is simple — can we make it perform within 12 months? If not, we pass. Capital is abundant, but integration discipline is rare. That’s where our edge is: not in how fast we buy, but in how quickly we make what we buy better.
4 – Founders Back in the Driver’s Seat
One shift I love seeing: founders are back in demand. Buyers learned the hard way that you can’t spreadsheet your way to innovation. Remove the founder too early, and you remove the heartbeat.
Our approach flips that script. We want founders to stay. We give them the infrastructure and insights to amplify what they already do best — innovate, execute, grow. Integration doesn’t mean absorption. It means freedom with better tools.
5 – What Surprised Me Most This Quarter
Honestly, how fast sentiment flipped. Twelve months ago, everyone was chasing frothy AI valuations. Today, those same people are asking how to integrate — not innovate.
That’s a massive tell. Discipline is cool again.
I was surprised by how quickly the market came back to fundamentals — execution, integration, outcomes. But maybe it shouldn’t have been a surprise at all. Every cycle ends the same way: the builders who can operate always outlast the ones who just chase momentum.
That’s what built different actually means. Not louder. Just better built.
— Jeremy Barnett, CEO, RAD Intel
Momentum Meter — Four Quick Hits
Amped about: Vista Equity’s $23 billion fund aimed at AI-driven enterprise software. Smart capital’s doubling down on systems that prove ROI, not just promise it. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/vista-equity-raises-23b-fund-to-back-ai-software
.png)
